Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making

Main Article Content

Rafaela Hillerbrand

Abstract

Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical decision making. It is shown how common decision approaches based on the precautionary principle fail to adequately deal with uncertainties as they arise in climate modeling. I argue that with regards to climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This distinguishes the ethical problems associated with climate change from other problems regarding energy supply and demand like, for example, those associated with nuclear power.

Article Details

Section
Articles
Author Biography

Rafaela Hillerbrand, RWTH Aachen

Rafaela Hillerbrand studied physics and philosophy in Erlangen, Münster, Liverpool and Nice and holds a doctorate in both fields. Her research interests lie in the area of philosophy of science and philosophy of technology. Before she took up her current position as head of the research program ‘Ethics for Energy Technology’ at the Human & Technology Center, RWTH Aachen University, she worked as a research fellow at the University of Oxford.

References

Clarke, Steve (2005): Future Technologies, Dystopic Futures and the Precautionary Principle. In: Ethics and Information Technology. Vol. 7, 121–126.

Frame, Dave. J. / Faull, Nicholas E. / Joshi, Manoj M. / Allen, Myles R. (2007): Probabilistic Climate Forecasts and Inductive Problems. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2069.

Gardiner, Stephen M. (2006a): A Perfect Moral Storm: Climate change, intergenerational ethics and the problem of moral corruption. In: Environmental Values. Vol 15, 397–413.

Gardiner, Stephen M. (2006b): A Core Precautionary Principle. In: The Journal of Political Philosophy. Vol 14 (1), 33–60.

Giere, Reto (2004): How Models are Used to Represent Reality. In: Philosophy of Science. Vol. 71, 742–752.

Hanson, Sven Ove (1996): Decision-making under Great Uncertainty. In: Philosophy of the Social Sciences. Vol. 26, 369–386.

Hanson, Sven Ove / Johannesson, Mikael (1997): Decision-theoretic Approaches to Global Climate Change. In: Fermann, Gunnar (ed.): International Politics of Climate Change. Stockholm: Scandinavian University Press, 153–178.

Harsanyi, John C. (1999), Can the Maximin Principle Serve as a Basis for Morality? A critique of John Rawls' theory. Reprinted in: Richardson, Henry S. & Weithman, Paul J. (eds.): The Philosophy of John Rawls. A Collection of Essays. Taylor & Francis, 234– 246.

Harsanyi, John C. (1982): Morality and the Theory of Rational Behaviour. In: Sen, A. & Williams, B. (eds.): Utilitarianism and beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Hillerbrand, Rafeala / Ghil, Michael (2008): Anthropogenic Climate Change. Scientific uncertainties and moral dilemmas. In: Physica D 237, 2132–2138.

Lomborg, Bjørn (2001): The Sceptical Environmentalist. Measuring the real state of the world. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Lumer,Christoph (2002): The Greenhouse. A welfare assessment and some morals.

Lanham, Md., New York, Oxford: University Press of America.

Martinez Austria, Polioptro / van Hofwegen, Paul (2006) (eds.): Synthesis of the 4th World Water Forum, Mexico City.

Neuman, Jon, & Morgenstern, Oskar (1967): Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. New York: Wiley.

Nordhaus, William (2008): A Question of Balance. Weighing the options on global warming policies. Yale: Yale University Press.

Oreskes, Naomi. (2004): Science and Public Policy. What's proof got to do with it?. In:

Environmental Science & Policy. Vol. 7(5), 369–383.

O’Riordan, Timothy / Jordan, Andrew (1995): The Precautionary Principle in Contemporary Environmental Politics. In: Environmental Values. Vol. 4(3), 191-212.

Ord, Toby / Hillerbrand, Rafaela / Sandberg, Anders (2009): Probing the Improbable. Methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes. In: The Journal of Risk Research, forthcoming.

Peterson, Martin (2006): The Precautionary Principle is Incoherent. In: Risk Analysis. Vol 26(3), 595–601.

Pielke, Roger A. Jr. (2004): When Scientists Politicize Science. Making sense of controversy over the sceptical environmentalist. In: Environmental Science & Policy. Vol 7, 405–417.

Raffensberger, Carolyn / Tickner Joel A. (1999): Introduction: to Foresee and Forestall. In: Raffensberger / Tickner (eds.): Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing the Precautionary Principle. Washington: Island Press, 1–11.

Sandin, Per. / Peterson, Martin. / Hansson, Sven Ove / Ruden Christina & Juthe, Andre (2002): Five Charges Against the Precautionary Principle. In: Journal of Risk Research Vol. 5, 287–299.

Shafer, Glenn (1990): Perspectives on the Theory and Practice of Belief Functions. In: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. Vol. 41, 323-362.

Solomon, Susan / Qin, Dahe / Manning, Martin / Chen, Zhenlin. / Marquis, Melinda / Averyt, Kristen / Tignor, Melinda. / Miller, LeRoy. (2007) (eds.): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WG I to the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.

Stern, Nicholas (2007): The Economics of Climate Change. In: The Stern Review.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1998): Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change. http://unfccc.intresourcedocsconvkpkpeng.pdf.

United Nations Environment Program (1992): Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. http://unep.orgDocuments.MultilingualDefault.asp?DocumentID=78&ArticleID=1163

Weitzman, Martin L. (2009): On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. In: Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol 1(1), 1–19.

Wingspread Statement (1998): The precautionary principle. 586. http://www.psrast.orgprecaut.htm. Viewed February 19.

Wittgenstein, Ludwig (2001): Philosophical Investigations. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.